Abstract: Development of rational strategies of supplementing reserves in a system of oil funds is an actual problem. A model that may assist to oil experts elaborate such strategy for system of oil fields, which are on different stages of exploration, is proposed. The model is a dynamical model of material balance with one-side cross flow from poorly studied funds to more studied ones accompanied by losses as described by transition coefficients given by experts with uncertainty. In the framework of the model is supposed that for each year of planning period levels of oil production (production program) are exogenous variables. Number of unknown variables (that are values of supplements in each fond for each year) in linear equations of the model is equal to production of quantity of time steps in planning period and number of fund types. Number of equations is much less than number of unknown variables. To solve the model it is complemented by criterion of optimality. The criterion is minimum of discounted costs needed for transitions. Coefficients in equations are interval expert estimations. It’s rather hard to analyze the problem by Monte-Carlo? method because this way requires large-scale calculations for each time step from planning period. One is showed that simpler equivalent model may be developed that permit to calculate needed probability distributions more easily. Besides the model has property of scaling invariance that permits to extend these distributions on further time steps.

Keywords: model of supplementing oil funds, expert analysis, property of scaling

ACM Classification Keywords: I.6.5 Model Development. I.6.6 Simulation Output Analysis. I.2.8 Plan Execution, Formation and Generation.

Link:

ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ДИНАМИКИ ПОПОЛНЕНИЯ ФОНДОВ УГЛЕВОДОРОДОВ

Михаил Стернин, Геннадий Шепелев

http://foibg.com/ibs_isc/ibs-22/ibs-22-p04.pdf